Performance Check

Culture In Decline (Episode 4)

NIKKEI Brings Back 2008 Memories

No new trades today. SIL and SLV continue their modest climb out of the deep chasm. It is to be seen if this rebound will produce anything meaningful. NIKKEI's 7% one-day collapse brings back 2008 memories. It is a good reminder how quickly can things turn ugly. I wouldn't be surprised if the current run in US equities is broken in a similar fashion. After all, most of the today's trades are executed by machine algorithms, which usually creates price velocity in either direction.

Market Leaders Are Breaking Down

The broad market sell-off triggered some major trend breakdowns. For example, REIT's (i.e. IYR) are on the brink of breaking down their six month uptrend. This was one of the market leaders, which, if you are a bull, is a not a good sign to see. When the market leaders start to crack, the overall trend is usually already reversing. We shall see if that's the case this time around...

SIL and SLV performed relatively well in today's session, which makes me think if we are about to see rotation into precious metals soon. I bought 20 shares of SLV at $21.54 and 5 shares of PFF at $40.89. Right now, my trading account consists of: 25 shares of IDV, 5300 shares of SIL, 820 shares of SLV, and 35 shares of PFF.

Inside Day For SIL

No new trades. Despite 3% drop in silver, SIL held up relatively well today. SIL traded well within yesterday's high and low, and with somewhat lower volume. Keep an eye on $13 tomorrow. If SIL holds above it, that would be a good sing for a potential reversal build-up. If, however, the $13 level is not maintained, things could get even more dicey...

Silver's Dead Cat Bounce, Or A Reverse Of Fortune?

No new trades today. We have seen nice rebound in precious metals today. SIL and SLV both nicely advanced. I did not make any changes in my trading account to either of two positions. If SIL receives decent volume in the next few days, we could see it at $15 fairly soon. However, the trend is still pointing down. To truly break through this downtrend, SIL will have to climb to and above $16.

Dow Jones Annual Returns 1982-1999

1982: +19.60% (Yield 5.17%)
1983: +20.27% (Yield 4.48%)
1984: -3.74% (Yield 5.00%)
1985: +27.66% (Yield 4.01%)
1986: +22.58% (Yield 3.54%)
1987: +2.26% (Yield 3.67%)
1988: +11.85% (Yield 3.67%)
1989: +26.96% (Yield 3.74%)
1990: -4.34% (Yield 3.94%)
1991: +20.32% (Yield 3.00%)
1992: +4.17% (Yield 3.05%)
1993: +13.72 (Yield 2.65%)
1994: +2.14% (Yield 2.76%)
1995: +33.45% (Yield 2.28%)
1996: +26.01% (Yield 2.03%)
1997: +22.64% (Yield 1.72%)
1998: +16.10% (Yield 1.65%)
1999: +25.22% (Yield 1.47%)

The longest bull market on record took the Dow Jones from 875 (12/31/1981) to 11,497 (11/31/1999). This move represents a price gain of 1,214%. A hypothetical investment of $10,000 from 1981 grew to $131,396 by the end of 1999. That is a 15.38% compounded annual return for this 18 year long period.

However, when you price in dividends, compounded annual return jumps to 19.08%. This might not seem like a huge difference from ex-dividend compounded annual return of 15.38%. Well, it only seems that way. The difference is huge! With paid dividend, a hypothetical investment of $10,000 in 1981 grew to $231,927. The total return was 2,219%!

Although dividends appear to be relatively small portion of the overall returns on year to year basis, their long term impact is astonishingly high. The impact of paid dividends grows as the time horizon is extended.

Buy & Forget Portfolio +7.3%

Buy & Hold Portfolio +8.8%

Performance Check

Culture In Decline (Episode 3)

Bought 100 SIL Shares @ $13.10

I added 100 shares of SIL to my trading account this morning at $13.10. With this transaction, my SIL position reached 5,200 shares. This was the only change to my portfolios today. Please stay tuned for more updates...

Silver: Another Crash Mode Ahead?

Silver got pounded today (SLV -3.6%). It broke the critical support level at $22, and now it in danger of getting into another "free fall" period. Along the same lines, SIL broke $14 yesterday, and quickly run towards $13.30 in today's session. I mentioned this potential development in my previous post. I added 200 shares of SIL and 30 shares of SLV today in the later part of the day, for the reasons as I listed yesterday. There is good chance SIL will be heading towards $12, and SLV towards $20, in the next few weeks...  Fasten your seat belts!

SIL Falls Bellow $14

No new trades today. SIL broke $14-level, and now is in danger of cratering further down - towards $12. I placed a 100-share limit buy order at $13.75 towards the closing bell, but the order did not get triggered. Tomorrow, if SIL opens up on a negative gap, watch out for a breakdown. I will most likely entertain potential buying only during the final the final 1-2 hours of the trading session. The reason is, as I mentioned earlier, SIL could get pounded with sellers throughout the day.

A Break Even Day

The market went nowhere today, S&P500 +0%. This was another particularly tough day for Silver (SLV -2.6%). On a more positive side, so to speak, both SLV and SIL stayed above the critical support levels: SLV above $22 and SIL above $14. Keep an eye on these two price levels this week as the bears press on. If SLV and SIL hold above them, it could be a good place to start building up for a more meaningful rebound. If they do not hold, more sellers will come to the table, and the bottom could fall out.

Culture In Decline (Episode 2)

Performance Check

SIL Testing $14

As I mentioned yesterday, breaking below $14 could spell addition trouble for SIL. The ETF is testing $14 this morning. I added 100 shares to my current trade position at $14.11 today. Similarly, SLV is fighting to stay above $22.50. I added 20 shares of SLV to my trade position at $22.51. Let's see if anything sticks in days to come...

Trading Sideways: SIL and SLV

No new trades today. SIL traveled to the upper edge of $14, only to be smacked down by 50 cents by the time of the closing bell. It closed at $14.47. The ETF is probably OK for as long as it stays above the $14 mark. When we break that barrier, watch out below. In that case $12 is a probable next stop. Similarly to SIL, SLV continues to trade sideways. Let's see either can break out of the current tight trading range over the next week or so...

Bought 100 SIL Shares @ $14.54

I added 100 shares of SIL this morning at $14.54. This trade position is 4,800 shares large. Currently, I am holding 400 shares at and below $14.75, which I might sell somewhere between $15.20 and $15.40. If executed in the range, this trade would result in a $300 profit. On the downside, I am still very much interested in adding shares to my existing position at, or around, the $14 level. No other changes were made to my trading account positions.

Silver Update (SIL, SLV)

I added 20 shares of SLV this morning at $22.77 to my trading account position. My next buy target is around $22.25. In addition, I have two limit buy order for SIL: 100 shares at $14.20, and 100 shares at $14.00.

Bought 50 SLV Shares @ $23.15

I bought 50 shares of SLV this morning at $23.15. With this transaction, my shares ownership in SLV jumped to 830 shares - all in my trading account. I am eyeing SIL this week for a potential buy around the $14 level. No other changes were made to my trading account.

Performance Check

Culture In Decline (Episode 1)

Sold 50 SLV Shares @ $23.44

This morning, I sold 50 shares of SLV at $23.44. This lot was purchased two days ago at $22.70. I continue to hold 680 shares of SLV in my trading account. As I mentioned this morning, I am expecting choppy trading as SLV approaches the $23.70 resistance level. Year-to-date, I traded SLV nine times for a total realized gain of $465.45.

No changes were made to other positions in my trading account. My next sell target for SIL is at $16. I am intending to sell 800 shares around that level, which would result in a net gain of $900. However, I might split this order into two, with one targeting mid $15's and the other one executing around mid $16's. I am still not sure how this one will be done, please stay tuned for more details. Currently, I am holding 4,700 shares of SIL in my trading account.

SLV: Targeting $23.70

No new trades yesterday. The S&P500 continues to push through new all-time highs. Precious metals, on the other hand, are nowhere close to those levels. Silver (SLV) has consolidated between $22.00 and $23.70 over the last two weeks or so. If SLV breaks through, and closes above $23.70, the next stop is likely around the $25.20 level. This is where the "wheels fell off", so to speak, on April 12, when SLV collapsed to $22 the very next day. Digging itself up is a daunting task, so I am expecting a lot of choppy trading in SLV in days to come. Again, the first milestone is to close above $23.70. Until that key level is taken out, there is very little to "hope for".

Currently, I own 730 shares of SLV in my trading account.

Bought 50 SLV Shares @ $22.70

I bought 50 shares of SLV this morning at $22.70. If SLV drops below $22, it could get ugly once again. In addition to SLV, I am monitoring SIL. Currently, my lowest lot in SIL is at $14.40. Falling towards $14.00-$14.20 zone would prompt me to add shares to my existing position.

At the time of this writing, I own 4,700 shares of SIL and 730 shares of SLV in my trading account.

April Net Worth Growth -0.8%

After 10 consecutive monthly increases, our net worth took a dive in April (-0.8%). This is primarily due to large trading position in SIL. All it took was a $2 decline in SIL, spread over 5,000 shares, to clip our "egg" by ~ 2%. I took off $6K from Buy & Hold portfolio and moved into cash, which I will discuss in detail later on.

Waiting For The Fed

Today, I sold 50 shares of SLV at $23.37 (small scalp trade), while adding a few shares of PFF to my trading account. The overall market held up relatively well considering chatter around two-day Fed's session. I figured I would take a few bucks off the table before Fed's "high priests" give their vision of the future. No other changes were made to my trading account. In my Buy & Hold account, I sold most of my shares in INTC. I will touch on that portfolio a little bit more later this week.

S&P500's All-Time Record Highs

No new trades today. S&P500 +0.72%, SIL +1.36%, SLV +1.90%. A couple of more sessions like this one, and I will be looking to unload a couple of hundred SIL shares ($14.40-lot and $14.60-lot). Hopefully, this momentum will bring more buyers to the table, which is usually what happens when equities surge higher.